I am returning from gambling after many years away, and a lot has changed now, but it is much better then it was many many moons ago. I could walk into a bookies, place a few bets and leave and reality was that I would not get banned etc. However over the years as the internet has taken over I have been banned from pretty much all bookmakers now or at the very least been restricted which is a real shame but thankfully Betfair is great, and that is where I live now.
Most of my early day’s football betting was taking punts on the results of a game, but after a while, this was not working out too well, and I decided to start looking at other ways and I delved into the dark depths of backing the total number of goals that will be scored in a game.
If you do that, then you will have three results on your side, and often be getting much better odds that you would for naming a “home,” “away” or a “draw”. If you love stats and looking at form, then you will know that teams have very different styles of playing and their style shows up in the number of goals that they score and concede.
So How Did I do This?
All you need is the league tables you can find these anywhere online.
Step One – The Home Team
Divide their “Goals Scored” at home by the number of home games they have played. This will then give you an average number of goals they score per home game. So if they have scored 30 games in 10 matches, their average “Goals Scored” at home would be 3 per match.
Do the same with their “Goals Conceded” at home. If they have conceded 10 goals in 10 matches, their average Goals COnceded would be 1 per match.
Step Two – The Away Team
You will need their scored and conceded figures as well. DIvide their goals scored away from home by the number of away games they have played. Now you know their average number of goals they score in away matches.
Divide their goals conceded away, by the number of away games they’ve played. Now you know their average goals conceded away too.
Step Three – The Goals Ratings
From these four figures, you will be able to make accurate ‘Goals’ ratings for any game.
1- Add the two team’s ‘Goals Scored’ figures together, and divide the total by two. You’ll then have a figure that tells you how many goals should be scored in the game.
2- Add the two team’s ‘Goals Conceded’ together, and divide this total by two. You will now have a figure that tells you how many goals should be conceded in the game. These two figures are really telling you the same thing, but by working out both of them, you are double checking the accuracy of the forecast.
Step 4 – The Bet
If the two figures are within 0.3 of each other, then you should have a bet on the nearest Goal total. For example, if the ‘Goals Scored’ rating is 2.9 and the ‘Goals COnceded’ rating is 2.8. Then you should bet that there will be a total of three goals in the match. You will usually get 3/1 or 7/2 for this. Or you could play it safe and cover two possible scores. You could bet there will be ‘2 or 3 Goals Scored,’ in the match. Many bookies will give this option, and you could expect to get around 11/10 for it.
But if the ‘Goals Scored’ and ‘Goals Conceded’ figures tell a very different story, you should leave the game well alone as being unreliable.
If ‘Goals Scored’ rating is 2.9 and the ‘Goals Conceded’ rating is 1.8 then the advice is definitely ‘no bet.’
The Golden Rule
If the ‘Scored’ and ‘Conceded’ Figures are within 0.3 of each other, you have a bet. If they vary by more than this, move on to the next game as there are plenty of opportunities. Once you have gone into Goals Betting, you may want to look at every possible match. There are tonnes of opportunities to win money every single week and even make Goal DOubles, trebles and accumulators for huge profits.